Discover The A Simple Rating Method That Gives On Average 60 Winners A Week
Predicting the winner of a horse race is not easy and not exact science, if it was everyone would be able to make money. There are so many variable factors that it would be unrealistic to suggest that the winner could be accurately selected in every single race. Factors such as form, going, the jockey, the tempo, the conditions, whether or not the horse is having an off day, whether it is fully fit etc. all play a major part in determining the outcome of a race.
It is therefore only possible to determine the horse with the most probable chance of winning based upon the facts and figures available to the average person i.e. those details published in the daily newspapers and online.
Having spent hundreds of hours analyzing tens of thousands of horse races I believe I have a formula that I consider to be the one of the best ways of rating horses around — that is the factors that a winning horse is most likely to possess.
The ratings are concentrated on 5 main criteria;
• Form
• Fitness
• Proven ability
• Age
• Weight
Form
Form is the most influencing factor. 65% of all races are won by horses that finished in the first 6 last time out. My figures suggest that a horse that had won its previous race is more likely to win than a horse that finished for example 3rd in its last outing. And a horse that finished 3rd in its last race was more likely to win than a horse that had finished 6th. These facts will probably not astound you and common sense tells us that this should be the case. However it is how much more likely is the horse to win that should concern us.
The horse that finished 1st last time out is 1.45 times more likely to win than the horse that finished 3rd. A horse that finished 3rd is 2.16 times more likely to win than the horse finishing 6th.
These figures alone don’t have much real meaning. However when assigned a rating as I’ve done so in the formula and coupled with the other factors they become a fairly powerful tool.
Fitness
Horses that run within 28 days of their previous outing tend to win 66% of all races. Obviously if more than one or even all the horses in the race were running within 28 days then this figure does not have much meaning. However I found that horses running within 8-14 days of a previous outing have the highest chance of success followed by those running 15-21 days after their previous outing.
Proven Ability
Horses that have previously won at the distance they are running tend to win 35% of all races. Similarly those horses that have previously won at the course tend to win 16% of all races.
Age
Quite simply certain ages of horse fair better than others. This may seem quite logical as the younger an animal is the quicker it is likely to be and the older one gets the slower it will become.
Weight
This should be the most determining factor of any horse race. After all, put a ton weight on a horses back and it won’t move. Put a feather on its back and it might even fly! Unfortunately it isn’t as simple as that. Horses will be assigned a weight that is either based on their age or their ability. In handicap races the horses are weighted so that in theory they should all cross the line together. However time and again a horse carrying top weight seems to brush aside the challenge of the bottom weight — simply because it has the ability to do so. Therefore, although weights play a big part in determining the outcome of a race they must be used in line with the rest of the formula.
The Formula
To use the formula is quite straightforward, however can be a little time consuming ( But worth it ) To assign a rating to a horse start at the first one on the race card and work down.
Form
Concentrate on the previous 3 form figures for the current season only. If the horse has finished either 6th or higher last time out then assign it the corresponding rating. Do the same for the 2nd last time out, and then the same for the 3rd last. For example if the horse has won all 3 of its races then it is assigned 150 points i.e. 50 for each win. If it finished 2nd, 3rd and 5th respectively then it is given 45 points for finishing 2nd, 30 points for finishing 3rd and 19 points for finishing 5th — a total of 94 points.
If the horse has only run once in the current season then it can only be rated on the one run. If it has not been out at all or of it has never run before then it is not given any points at all.
One exception to this is that as there is very little ‘close’ season these days for National Hunt horses — in late April, when the ‘new’ season commences and until the 1st July following it is necessary to use the previous form figures for the purposes of the formula as long as the horse had run within the last 100 days.
For example a horse running on May 5th may be having its first run of the ‘new’ season. However, because it had only run for example 65 days ago then the last 2 form figures from the previous season should be used for rating purposes.
This also applies to horses running on the Flat after January (the start of the ‘new’ season). Until the end of March, any horse that has had a run within the previous 100 days should be assessed using its last 2 form figures.
Horses disqualified from first, second or third place in any of their previous 3 outings should be treated as if they had actually finished in that position. Those disqualified from any other position should be treated as finishing last. Horses relegated or those who have had their positions reversed in any of their previous 3 outings should be assessed using the amended positions to determine their ratings.
Occasionally horses run under National Hunt rules having previously raced on the flat and vice versa. The only form that can be applied is that which relates to the race currently being rated. For example a horse having had 3 previous outings on the flat and now racing over hurdles is only rated on any previous National Hunt form (hurdles or steeplechases). Similarly a horse having previously raced under National Hunt rules and now running on the flat is only rated on any previous flat form.
Course Winner
If the horse has previously won at the course it is assigned the appropriate number of points. Only one set of points is awarded no matter how many times it has won at that course.
Distance Winner
If the horse has previously won at the distance then it is assigned the appropriate number of points. Again only one set of points is awarded regardless of the number of times won at the particular distance.
Course & Distance Winner
If the horse has previously won at the course and at the same distance then it is assigned the appropriate number of points. If a horse is a C & D then the course and distance points will not be added individually. Only the C & D winner points will be added
Fitness
If the horse is running within 28 days of its previous outing it is assigned the appropriate number of points. If running after 29 days or more or not having had a previous outing then no points are awarded. This applies to horses running under Flat rules having previously raced under national Hunt rules and vice versa.
Age
Points are assigned depending on the age of the horse.
Weight
Points are assigned depending on the weight carried by the horse. This includes extra weight as a result of a penalty for a recent win but does not include apprentice jockey’s allowances. Therefore if a horse is assigned to carry 10-12 and has been given a 3lbs extra penalty it will now be carrying 11-1 and should be rated as such. However, a horse assigned to carry 11 -3 and has an apprentice jockey on board claiming 5lbs in allowances should still be treated as carrying the original weight and not the allowance.
Finally
if there are joint top-rated or second top-rated horses, the horse or horses carrying the highest weight are given an extra point.
If there are still equally rated horses then the horse that ran the least days ago is given another point.
If there are still equally rated horses then the one with the highest finishing position last time out gains another point.
If this still leaves one or more horses on the same rating then any distance winner is given another point.
If there is still no clear horse then a previous course winner is given a further point.
Finally if there is still no clear horse then the youngest horse is given one more point. No further criteria is used to determine a top or second top-rated horse.
Rated Runner Formula
Now that your in possession of this formula which indeed is a very powerful tool in its own right you may wish to consider ways in which you are going to apply it.
37% of all winners (9,397) in the last 36 month period in Great Britain came from the top two rated horses in this formula. The starting prices of these horses ranged from odds on right up to 100-1.
However, it would not be prudent to back the top two rated horses in each race and hope to make a profitable return on your investment. This is where your own skill and judgment will come into play. Top- rated horses provide the most winners — my statistics prove this. However, it may be that the 2nd top-rated runner was unlucky last time out, was badly hampered or had a poor draw. It may also be trained by one of the top trainers, have a good pedigree or is being lowered in class. It is even possible that it has only had one run this season as opposed to the top-rated horse having had two previous outings. It may also only be 2nd top-rated by a very small margin. All of these factors make it worthy of closer scrutiny and this is where you apply your own judgment and decide which horse, if any is the most likely to win.
Further analysis has shown me that the fewer the runners in a race the more likely the winner will be from the top two rated horses (remember the saying ‘the bigger the field the bigger the certainty’? — well this simply isn’t true from my research and analysis!). Similarly the formula is 30% more successful in non-handicap races i.e almost 41% of all winners of non-handicap races are either top or 2nd top-rated by the formula. These races tend to be run at or near level weights and starting prices tend to be lower than those in handicaps, therefore allowances should be made for this.
When combining these facts it is worth bearing in mind that in non-handicap races of less than 6 runners the winner will come from the top or 2nd top-rated horses 55% of the time. In non-handicap races of 16 or less runners the winner will come from the top two rated horses 41% of the time. Although these statistics don’t actually affect the individual ratings within a race they can help to reinforce a decision whether to back a horse or not if any uncertainty exists.
From a personal point of view and having used this formula for a number of years I have finely tuned my betting activities. Occasionally I limit myself to the number of bets laid by only backing top-rated runners that are rated well clear of their nearest rival. To enter this category the 2nd top-rated runner must be rated at no more than 75% of the top-rated runners rating. For example a top-rated runner rated with 100 points would be my selection if the 2nd top-rated runner was rated with no more than 75 points.
A system I sometimes employ is combining the top two rated horses in dual or reverse forecasts. I have had some very profitable days betting like this and it takes away the problem of deciding on which horse to back. From small fields to largely contested handicaps it can be used to good effect.
However, after all is said and done the purest and simplest system could be one that backs the top-rated runner in every single race regardless of any other factor. Applying level stakes to these horses would not be profitable based on past season’s statistics. A system would need to be put in place that raised or lowered the stake according to the size of the bank at any given time and the likely starting price of the horse. The stake could then be raised or lowered as necessary. For example a top-rated runner in a field of 3 at level weights starting at odds of 1-2 may be worthy of a higher stake. Conversely a top-rated horse in an 18 runner handicap starting at odds of 10-1 may warrant a reduced stake.
Try the formula out before you decide to bet, get comfortable with it. Carry out your own exercises by rating all the races each day for a week or two and check the results. On average there are 60 winners a week produced from the top two rated horses. That is 9 winners for every day racing takes place in Great Britain. By exercising prudence and using your own skill and judgment you can decide which horses are worthy of attention.
You may even have a system or method that works well already, you could simply use these ratings to confirm or aid these selections. Regardless of how you decide to use the ratings I’m certain you’ll gets some great results with them.
